Today’s a pretty hot day, which of course is typical considering it is the middle of a late-starting summer season (go global warming). I decided to take a break today and research a side hobby of mine that has recently become an obsession, the business of search engines, namely Microsoft + Yahoo and Google. I had recently tried to comment on Matt Cutts’s own blog (www dot mattcutts dot com) but I felt perhaps that for the sake of objectivity, I would write my views here since I do not want people to say I’m for one side or for another. For the record I am for one side, myself and you, the user.
As many of you are aware, or at least not yet aware, Microsoft finally has struck a search deal with Yahoo. This deal involves giving all Yahoo searchers over to Microsoft, where now 30% of all searchers will now use Bing, versus Google’s 68%. According to Matt Cutts’s own blog, Google Caffeine is not a response to Microsoft Bing, but was a project that was in the works months ago (more on all this later). My personal view is that Jerry Yang, Yahoo founder and now Ex-Ceo of yahoo was the one person responsible for not allowing a search engine deal with Microsoft. It was well known that Jerry wanted a lot more money for Yahoo and this was right before the recession came in. At one point Microsoft was willing to pay up to $47.50 a share for Yahoo to buy out the company, which Yahoo rejected. Yahoo flounders around $14.56 a share at 4pm EST as of this writing. Needless to say, Yahoo shareholders must be really pissed off and well, that is why Jerry was outed (among other reasons).
Google is coming out with a next generation search engine codenamed “Google Caffeine” and it is currently in beta phase for United States google only, though Matt himself has openly declared that anybody can help beta test it. Google caffeine may be found at www2 dot sandbox dot google dot com. I myself have already performed some preliminary tests but I’d rather wait until it’s undergone more changes before I perform more tests. There is some debate that Google is rolling out Caffeine as a direct response to Bing (and it’s a pretty strong and good response mind you) and Matt himself said that it wasn’t because Google Caffeine was already in the works months ago, which I believe. Either way you look at it, it’s very good that Google had a product to solidify its core business, search.
But this isn’t about Google per say, as so much about Microsoft. Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer have a huge archrivalry with Larry Page, Sergei Brin, and Eric Schmidt (founders and ceo of Google respectively). While I do not know the specifics of how this rivalry started, I do know that Google actively headhunts Microsoft’s employees (basically going up to Microsoft employees and offering them better a job, stock, environment if they come to Google) so Microsoft is always having to replenish their talent due to Google. Not only that, Bing is actually a good search engine, which if you’re in the internet marketing world, means a lot. Live and msn dot come use to be TERRIBLE for search, I could never find a damned thing there. It had recently gotten better and then Bing comes out, which is a lot better. The most startling is that some results are actually as good as Google’s and the Bing bot not only indexes more pages in some cases (take search word dog for example as of last week) they also have really increased the speed at which they spider and index and crawl websites, which is another big surprise.
And I know it’s not about the money for Microsoft because Yahoo will receive a whopping 90 something % of all the advertising revenue from searchers on Yahoo dot com; Bill and Steve are just after that all valuable market share. The United States Justice Department is also not very happy with Google at the moment so Google’s attempts to label Microsoft as “anti trust” will be much harder here in the states, if not backfire, so Google will have much bigger trouble blocking this deal.
When I was researching this deal, and allowed time for the internet’s users to chime in their 2 cents, what struck me the most surprising, aside from Bing actually being a good search engine, was how much Google hate there was. If you go to any authoritative blog or website with a lot of users, about 40% of all the comments are complaining and hating on Google, mostly because of the “oppressive” Adwords campaign prices. I haven’t used Adwords myself in about 5 years but I still do have my account which I use for keyword research mostly (great tool by the way), and I know that when keywords cost 5 to 10 dollars as your minimum bid despite putting in 1 penny, that has businesses livid. Many complain that Google is hiding behind their Adwords “auction rules” without explaining why keywords cost so much, even when there are no visible adwords ads on the keyword term, and because Google is so dominant in search, Adwords is the only real way to get your site traffic (if you cannot do seo). Many complaints I’ve read stated that they can’t rank for the words they want and that Adwords is all they have, and with the recent changes and the way they’ve been treated by Google Adwords, they’re going to lose a lot of money and their business. With this recession going on, I guess everybody is losing money and tempers are flaring left and right.
This is a prime opportunity for Microsoft, and they’re no doubt happy to accommodate these businesses, but they still need to provide the one thing companies need, organic search users. Shocking, Bing does just that. Even I find myself searching both Bing and Google, which is something I thought I would never do. It does however give me diversity of results to help me with whatever I’m doing at the moment. Which brings me to you, the user.
While I highly doubt Google will die or get killed or whatever some crazy opinions say, I can confidently say that Google is actually in trouble, which they can and probably will deal with. If they do slip up though, Microsoft is going to take at least 50% market share. I say 50% because if both search engines (which are basically all that there is, at least here in the western world) produce basically the same, relevant results, which they do, then users will keep using whatever search engine they’re comfortable with. That puts Google at a disadvantage because all Microsoft has to focus on is stealing users from Google. As time goes on all users realize that using either Bing or Google will net no real difference in search results (because both search engines will ideally be very good and very relevant) so they will just use whichever service they feel more comfortable with. People are lazy, like me, and we’re also generally quite smart, so if I were a disgruntled Adwords user, I would definitely switch to Bing because one, I would have felt ripped off and wronged by google due to my losses on Adwords, and two if search results are just as good, it’s best to help out Bing since my Bing-equivalent ads are running and I need to help contribute to the search engine that will get me paid the most and treats me the nicest, which in this case is Bing, not Google.
So, given the large amount of angry Adwords users, they will definitely switch to Bing, and with it their content, products, and services. Then Microsoft can come up with cheap tricks to steal google users, such as the ads you see for “use bing and get a free xbox 360 controller” or “buy windows 7 when it comes out at yyy% off if you use bing for z amount of time using this tracking software” etc. There are also some businesses who have been indexed in Google for the longest time and find themselves being deindexed for some reason. While they probably violated some of the Google’s Webmaster’s Terms Of Service, they likely will still be very angry, and will look for an alternative, which is Bing. I’ve personally seen stats and data on 1000’s of websites and pages that are indexed that show Bing is actually a big contributor of traffic where in cases Google give little to no traffic, and that is frightening.
And that brings me to the point of this post. If Google continues to do whatever it is that keeps pissing off a certain segment of their search users, they will most definitely migrate to Bing, if they haven’t done so already. They haven’t had much choice to vent their frustrations because Google was basically the only game in town with their great search engine. But now that Bing is actually good, these frustrated people now have a choice once again (Google is technically a monopoly in the search market). You might say that these users are either spammers or small in a number, and while that is a very crude way to look at it, it is probably true, excepting that some people who are getting hurt are legitimate website owners. This is probably contributing to the rise of people thinking of Google as more and more of an “evil” company rather than the benevolent underdog that we all saw it as almost a decade ago. Once this sentiment spreads, it’ll affect other people who will change their behavior patterns and ultimately actions, as a result. That action will be to use Bing and Microsoft knows that, and they are absolutely capitalizing on it. While I enjoy competition and Google, I feel a little better knowing that I can ultimately have my choice of either Google Caffeine (when it launches) or Microsoft Bing.
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